***SWAMPY SUNDAY - MUCK 5 - WEEK 4***
***BUFFALO BILLS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS***
We have a very interesting game here as the Ryan brothers and the BIlls are riding high off a big win last week at home against the Arizona Cardinals, and head straight into Foxborough to take on the undefeated Patriots despite QB Tom Brady serving a 4 game suspension. The NFL is a pretty wild league isn't it? Although I guess we shouldn't be surprised that the Pats are doing well without their star QB since we've seen them do it before. It is just pretty amazing just how easy they have made it look thus far. That being said, everybody had pretty much chalked 'em up to "4-0 without Brady" after last week's domination of the Texans on Thursday Night Football, with only the Bills on deck who at the time looked like a lowly team. However last week Rex got the boys fired up enough to defend their home field where they absolutely smacked the Cardinals out the gate and beat them comfortably. I was pissed the Bills let the dogs loose a game early as I had them circled in this spot against the Pats for awhile now as the type of sneaky play I like to sniff out. That is also why I backed Arizona last week, but to my surprise the trap was real and the Bills took care of business. At first I was going to scratch this play after their big win but after just getting confirmation that the Patriots QB will be Brissett once again and that Garoppolo will be inactive, I am going to stick with it as I like Rex and the boys to get the win here. They simply have to. Yes they got off the early schneid last week with a big upset win but this is a huge division game against their big brother that they just can't seem to ever beat and they are going up against him in his most vulnerable state. If they can't beat them today then as long as Bill Belichick is there, they might not ever. The Bills need to take advantage of this spot and I believe with the momentum and confidence from last week, they will get it done. Brissett has an injured thumb and this could effect his grip on the ball. Now that he also has started a game the Bills can use that as a sneak peak to how the Pats plan to use him. The Texans were unfortunately the guinea pig last week and they failed miserably. When taking a deeper look at that game however the final score can be a bit deceiving. The Texans were a huge aid to the Pats victory by beating themselves with some key turnovers, setting up the Patriots with great field position all game. They played right into Belichick and McDaniel's hands and it was ugly. Throw in the factor that Rex Ryan loves nothing more in life than to beat Bill Belichick. I get the whole competitive edge where you want to beat the best but this guy is overboard with it and every year it is no secret that he has the games against the Pats circled not only because they are important division games but because they are personal to him. That all being said, no WR Sammy Watkins, no problem as Buffalo is used to it at this point and QB Tyrod Taylor will use his mobility to do his thing. After what RB LeSean McCoy showed us last week, I would assume they will try to get him going early as well. The Buffalo will surely focus on stopping the Pats running game and forcing Brissett to beat them, and I think he will struggle in this one trying to do so. The Ryan Brothers will circle the wagons and BIlls Mafia will serve the Pats there first Loss today. BILLS+3.5
***SETTLE SEAHAWKS @ NEW YORK JETS***
The Jekyll & Hyde Jets have shown us both sides thus far this season and today is yet another "must-win" scenario as they host the Seahawks who won a Super Bowl the last time they visited MetLife Stadium. This task will be a tough one but I like QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to right the ship today and play much better. They will be without #2 WR Eric Decker but the youngster Quincy Enunwa has shown that he has stepped up his game and is ready to handle a bigger role. He has already established a nice rapport with Fitz and I think he will fill in this spot nicely for Decker. NY also acquired the troubled TE that was cut from Tampa after a DUI, Austin Seferian-Jenkins. He just debuted in practice for the Jets on Thursday so I wouldn't expect him to have any more than a limited role if anything here today. Hopefully this event will provide as a wakeup call for this kid and he will be motivated to show the Jets that they struck gold with the potential of this talented target for Fitz. QB Russell Wilson is banged up pretty good and rocking a brace on his knee to prove it. He has been taking some big hits all year as his offensive line hasn't been up to par. Today gets no easier when they face the Jets defensive front who is one of the best units in the league. The Jets know that this is where they can capitalize and win this game and I expect Head Coach Todd Bowles to blitz Wilson to get him off his mark and moving on that bad wheel as much as possible. That being said I think Wilson will be under duress often here today similar to the game against the Rams where he seemed to be running for his life and that the Hawks offense will be limited. Going back on the other side of the ball, Fitzpatrick throwing passes against that Seattle secondary is dangerous and I wouldn't be surprised to see a turnover or two. However, I like the Jets to utilize RB Matt Forte as much as possible to ground and pound as their foundation for offense in this one. I foresee a low scoring FG battle here with the Jets getting that 1 big game changing play and coming out on top. JETS+1
***CLEVELAND BROWNS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS***
Not much to say in this one here. Just going to back this Redskins team riding some huge momentum after a huge first win on the road against the division rival Giants. Washington dropped their first two games of the season, both at home. I believe they will feast today on the young Browns QB Cody Kessler in his 2nd NFL start. Last week the Browns were able to go into their bag of tricks against the Dolphins and use their swiss army knife WR Terrell Pryor at QB at times to pull of big plays and use the element of surprise. The Redskins will be ready for this type of plays today. With the disappointing blown victory the Browns fell victim to last week by missing a game winning kick and then losing in OT, coupled with the Pats on deck, this is a bit of a letdown spot here. I think QB Cousins will find his targets with ease against this depleted Browns secondary and that the Skins can use this game as an important confidence establisher and create some steam as they head into the tougher part of their schedule. That being said there is no reason for them to overlook the Browns here, and I think they take advantage of a lesser opponent to take out some early season frustrations. I expect WR DeSean Jackson and TE Jordan Reed to eat up receptions all game. Not concerned with the Redskins defensive injuries in this one as I don't think the Browns will be able to take advantage and CB Josh Norman to limit Pryor. SKINS-7.5
***NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS***
Both of these teams have been destroyed by the dreaded injury bug so far this season and it is a shame. Especially in the Chargers case as they had some really high expectations coming into this season finally healthy and right off the bat their top WR goes down. Since then some other key pieces have also been lost like the captain and signal caller of their defense LB Manti Teo, another huge hit. The Chargers have been able to make due throughout as one could argue they should be sitting at 3-0 right now but after being unable to hold on and blowing 2 leads in 3 games they currently sit at 1-2. Today they welcome back their old franchise QB Drew Brees who amazingly has not been back to play in San Diego since they parted ways in an ugly fashion. The Chargers gave up on Brees after a big injury and he wasn't happy about it. I'd say it worked out for both sides as Drew went on to New Orleans and won a Super Bowl and the Chargers found their franchise QB in Philip Rivers whom always gives them a fighting chance. Given the two QBs here, today could be another shoot out. The Saints are still winless sitting at 0-3 and the same could be said for this team where they have been in every single game so far and just falling short of victory. That is enough reason for me to roll with the points and Brees here in a game I know he wants to win badly and I think his guys will rally around him to get it done. It is actually crazy to think that Brees has never played in SD since leaving given how long he has been playing in New Orleans. I don't think he will waste this opportunity. Saints+4
***DALLAS COWBOYS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ers***
Old school rivalry in this one and I am smelling another upset. Rookie QB Dak Prescott has been the man so far for the Cowboys while filling in for the injured veteran Tony Romo. Today they will most likely be without top WR Dez Bryant due to an injury so this offense will be all Dak and fellow rookie RB Ezekial Elliot. Both of these guys will have to put the team on their shoulders again today as they head into San Fran to face a hungry Head Coach Chip Kelly looking to avoid a 1-3 start in his first season with his new team. The Niners won a huge season opening game against the Rams on Monday Night Football but have gone on the road to get abused by the Panthers and Seahawks in the weeks to follow. This is no surprise as both of those teams have a great homefield advantage and lets face it, the Niners are not on the same level of talent as those teams either. However today's game at home against a rookie QB & RB duo, and a defense that doesn't threaten in any way at this time, I think they can and will hang. I like Niners QB Blaine Gabbert and I used to be one of the guys biggest critics during his time in Jacksonville. I think he has found a nice fit in SF for a fresh start and that Chip's offense may actually suit him pretty well. They are limited at WR and targets for him though but as I mentioned, up against this Dallas defense today I think they can find success like the way they were able to week 1 against the St. Louis secondary. I like SF MLB Navarro Bowman to track QB Dak Prescott and mirror him all game to limit his mobility, and the Niners to focus on stuffing the run against Elliot. This should be a close game throughout, and I like the Niners to come out on top with a win. 49ers+1.5
