***MNF IN THE SWAMP - DEN @ KC***

***DENVER BRONCOS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS***

First, I would like to acknowledge the worst Sunday the Swamp has ever experienced, and there have certainly been some bad ones over the years. I went winless yesterday and for that I sincerely apologize. I did however love every single pick yesterday and don't regret choosing them. If I were to go back in time to analyze, research, and feel the 'ol gut a bit more, I would've came up with the same handful. No regrets here, that's just the way the ball bounces sometimes, maybe not that bad, but it is what it is. Hopefully I can finish the week on a positive note with this one, but enough of the sob story, let's rock.

Tonight we have yet another Prime Time battle featuring the wild wild AFC West when the struggling 3-3 Denver Broncos head into Arrowhead Stadium to take on their bitter rival, the division leading 5-2 Kansas City Chiefs. We all know how Arrowhead is a dreaded place to play for visiting teams due to the noise level provided by their faithful fans. Now tonight's game is a MNF divisional matchup, on Halloween Eve! I think it is safe to say that there will be extra energy in the air, providing a maximum hostile environment welcoming Denver with open arms tonight. Of course, that factor favors the Chiefs greatly as things won't get any easier for this Broncos offense that has been having trouble finding a groove as of late. Denver has now dropped two in a row, against two teams that both started the season 0-4 in the Giants and Chargers. I believe it is important to mention that both of these teams are not as bad as they have looked. While the loss the Broncos suffered at the hands of the Giants on SNF two weeks ago was viewed as a HUGE upset, I don't think it was and was on the Giants that night to back up that statement. Who are the Broncos really? A great defensive team with a subpar offense, led by an inconsistent young QB in Trevor Siemian. Why is it so hard to believe that a desperate winless Giants team with an extremely talented defense combined with a veteran QB in Eli Manning could beat them? The Broncos may have fell asleep at the wheel and are guilty of overlooking that one, and the Giants made them pay for it. Regarding the loss to the Chargers- it was another divisional game where they were facing their rival for the second time around, ON THE ROAD, after beating them in a close game week 1. Are the Chargers that bad of a team? Like the Giants, another extremely talented defense with a veteran QB who is capable of beating whomever with the right gameplan and situation. What I'm getting at here is that I wasn't surprised by either of those losses and was also on the Chargers last week to back that statement up as well. I'm also not tooting my own horn here to be clear as we know I can be wrong, very wrong. Tonight however in this spot, I am going to back the Pony's to man up in the spotlight in what is a bit of an ironic spot, being that just two weeks ago they were in the opposite position in a similar game expected to win easily.

The Chiefs are the only team in the NFL to have a players ranking in the top 5 for yardage in all three categories: passing, rushing, and receiving. QB Alex Smith is 2nd, Rookie RB Kareem Hunt is 1st, and WR Tyreek Hill is 5th on those lists. That is extremely impressive. Head Coach Andy Reid is a football genius and has this offense humming like a fine tuned machine. He knows exactly how to utilize his talent and work to the strengths of his players. As I mentioned in my writeup for last week's game on TNF between the Chiefs and Raiders, a lot of the success for this offense has come from many college-like misdirection plays sprinkled with some trickery. Now at the midpoint of the season, the book is out on this offense and I believe that NFL Coaches as they ALWAYS eventually do, are starting to find ways to scheme against it. The Raiders surprisingly did a decent job defensively against KC last week if you take away the flukey tipped 63 yard TD pass from Smith to Albert Wilson. Other than that, speedster Tyreek Hill did burn them deep on a 64 yard bomb, but thats HIll being Hill and the Raiders blew that coverage. The Raiders secondary is nowhere near as strong as Denver's, AKA the "No Fly Zone." Although having gone through some alterations, the CB duo of Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr. remain in the Broncos secondary and they know they will be challenged tonight. This defense has played a lot of zone coverage recently and teams have had success throwing underneath it with the dink and dunk type of passing offense which we also know is Alex Smith's bread and butter historically. In fact, the Chiefs are responsible for three of the five games where the Broncos defense has allowed more than 29 points the last two years. I believe the Broncos will switch up to man coverage tonight going one on one with the Chiefs WRs and focus on stopping the Rookie phenom RB Kareem Hunt while assigning a Safety/LB to spy on Smith. Denver gets back DT Derek Wolfe to help their case in doing so by clogging up the middle rushing lanes. The Broncos also get pass rushing LB Shane Ray back tonight as well which will help take a lot of the extra attention that Pro Bowl LB Von Miller draws and allow the two of them to get after Alex Smith and keep him contained from rolling outside the pocket. Where the Broncos have been beaten badly the last two outings is covering the TE position as both the Giants Evan Engram and Chargers Hunter Henry ate them up. That being said, I trust Denver to make the necessary adjustments to make sure one of Smith's favorite targets in TE Travis Kelce doesn't find the same success Engram and Henry did. Another key adjustment the Broncos could make is by simply not allowing Tyreek Hill to return any kicks. Last week the Chargers Travis Benjamin returned a punt for a touchdown against them which should be a major red flag in practice this week to ensure those holes on Special Teams are tended to.

After starting the season 5-0, the Chiefs have also now dropped two games in a row. Those losses can be pointed at their defense. Two weeks ago Pittsburgh who just seems to have KC's number at this point, did what they do to the Chiefs and served them their first loss. Steelers RB LeVeon Bell was the key to that victory as he ran all over this Chiefs defense. In last week's loss, it was Raiders QB Derek Carr who threw at will all over the field against this secondary. The problem here when regarding the Broncos is that they don't have a Bell like RB nor a Carr like QB. Despite the last two weeks of woes for Siemian, I have seen enough of him to know he can play in this league. He actually reminds me of a young Tony Romo a bit. People seem to forget how young he is and that he is still learning. Now I am not saying that he is the next John Elway for Denver by any means, hell he might not even make it passed this week as the starting QB. For as bad as he has looked at times, he as also shocked the hell out of me with how good he has played at times over the past two seasons. The good news here is that he doesn't have to turn into Peyton Manning to have success managing the game tonight either. He just has to NOT turn the ball over. The Broncos offense as a whole, cannot afford to turn the ball over in this one if they want to pull off the upset. The past two losses have featured a total of 3 interceptions and 3 fumbles combined. I think they make it a point to take care of the football tonight and keep it on the ground with an overload of handing the ball of with the running game. Which brings me to my X-Factor for tonight.

Veteran RB Jamaal Charles will be returning to Kansas City for the first time since leaving the Chiefs after nine amazing years serving as their prized RB. Charles is on the backend of his career clearly and part of a committee of RBs that Denver use this season. I feel like people forget about this guy with the immediate success that the Rookie Kareem Hunt has had since day 1. Though he would never state it, I think that has got to bother Jamaal a little bit and I think it would be wise for the Broncos to give him the most touches this game. Bronco RBs CJ Anderson and Devontae Booker make up the other 2/3 of this stable. They've both been serviceable but nobody has really taken the reigns as the lead RB this season as they all have their faults as well. It seems to vary from week to week as to who leads the backfield in snaps during a game but I don't think it takes a rocket science to figure out that in an offense searching for a spark, it makes sense to feed Jamaal Charles in this game. I am positive that the 'ol vet is willing to use every last bit of whatever he has left in the tank in this game against his former team and on this big of a stage tonight. By solidifying the run game to a point of exhaustion, it would allow the Broncos to maybe catch the Chiefs secondary sleeping with Siemian finding one of the best YAC WRs in the game in Demaryius Thomas underneath, allowing him to go to work in the open field similar to how Oakland's Amari Cooper did last week. The Broncos offense was shutout last week for the first time since 1992! That's 25 years! Don't think for a second that Offensive Coordinator Mike McCoy doesn't take that embarrassment personally. Again it is important to stress how talented the Giants and Chargers defenses both are and how good they can be on any given Sunday with the right scheme. Chargers DEs Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram feasted on that offensive line and with some adjustments and pure challenging of ones manhood I think they improve those holes tonight. Due to some guys getting banged up and the loss of Pro Bowl Safety and defensive leader Eric Berry, the Chiefs defense has clearly shown holes in it lately. I believe the Broncos will be able to establish the run game and move the football against them. Siemian has been a little bit of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde thus far in his career, which one will show up tonight?! That remains to be seen. In a division game on Prime Time, I like the Broncos defense to clamp down and force a turnover or two to maybe pull off the upset here. We are halfway through the season and Smith has NOT thrown an interception yet, I think that ends tonight and this one is close battle either way. HAPPY HALLOWEEN! BRONCOS+7