****SWAMPY SUNDAY - WEEK 11 MUCK***

***JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS***

The winless Browns will try to avoid going 0-10 when they host the 6-3 Jaguars this afternoon in Cleveland. The Jaguars have been a fun team so far this season with arguably the best defense in the league. They are a young squad that is loaded with talent and the future is very bright in Jacksonville. In my eyes they are a QB away from being the real deal and making a run at the the title. That being said, I believe their QB Blake Bortles is holding them back unfortunately. Jacksonville also seems to be heavily drinking their own kool-aid lately, which I think can backfire this week in Cleveland. In my opinion, this game is a bit of a perfect storm for the Brownies. Obviously, going up against one of the best defenses is never ideal, but where the Jags hurt, the Browns are strong. Keeping things simple for example, the only somewhat soft spot in the Jaguar defense is against the run game, which is pretty much the only strength of the Browns offense. On the other side of things, the best part of Cleveland's defense is stopping the run game, which is what the Jacksonville offense relies heavily on. The Jags also might be without their prized Rookie RB Leonard Fournette again today with an injury. The Browns have impressed me the past two weeks with their effort. Despite blowing two games to NFC North opponents in the Vikings and Lions, they did come out strong and LEAD during the game. That tells me they are getting closer to putting things together, they are improving. Those two games were against teams that boast much better offenses than the Jags do.

QB Blake Bortles has done enough to not screw the game at times when they are ahead but last week when his team needed him in crunch time versus the Chargers he turned into that horrendous QB that we all know can be. Earlier this week he had the nerve to go ahead and make a comment toward Rookie QB DeShone Kizer saying something like "try to throw it to your team as much as possible." Tisk, tisk my friend, that is a big no-no in a world where sports karma is very real! You don't make comments like that unless you're slinging the rock like Aaron Rodgers and even then, it's never a good idea to put that bad voodoo in motion. Former Browns players like Jag's Safety Tashaun Gipson also provided some bulletin board material for the Brownies as if getting their first win isn't already enough motivation. He went ahead and stated that the Browns were probably going 0-16 this season and that they wouldn't score against them. He also took a shot at the organization as a whole saying how much of a blessing it was to "get out of a situation like that and come to a situation like this where you now what winning feels like." Browns Head Coach Hue Jackson came out and said that they indeed feel disrespected by those comments. If that isn't enough, Rookie WR Dede Westbrook is making his debut today and has predicted a 200 yard game. With Bortles at QB? Good luck with that kid. The Browns Owner Jimmy Haslam also made a personal visit to the team this week to give a bit of a pep talk. All this being said, I believe the Browns will keep this one close and possibly get the upset today. With the 49ers getting over the hump last weekend and leaving Cleveland now as the only team left without a win, once again, I think that it will ignite a little extra spark at home today. The last two weeks were on the road in London and Detroit, where as I mentioned they played MUCH better despite blowing leads and not even covering the number in the end. This in my mind makes this a perfect spot to hop on Cleveland when most who've tried previously are probably fed up with all the teases at this point. The Jaguars were lucky to get out of last week with a win, the Chargers had the game won multiple times and did what they usually do to ruin their chances of getting a win at the end of close games and eventually served the Jags the W on a silver platter in OT. If not for a fake punt going 56 yards for a TD, the Jags wouldn't of done enough on offense to be in the game. I expect the Browns to be motivated to the maximum in this situation against a young and cocky team with some flaws, thinking they are better than they are. I smell some humble pie cooking early as Thanksgiving approaches. The Browns will keep the offense on the ground because let's face it, that is the safe plan of attack here. They also get explosive WR Corey Coleman back in the lineup as well. I expect Cleveland to hang tough here by playing a sound defensive game, and doing just enough on offense to keep up in a close game. Kizer's confidence is getting better with more experience each week, and I like them to surprise here. BROWNS+7

***TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS***

Must win situation here for the Dolphins. As they come off a rough stretch that featured three Prime Time losses in a row that resulted in 2 blowouts on the road and a close loss to the Raiders at home. If they want to keep their playoff pipe dreams alive, they need to get a W against a lesser team in the Bucs at home today. Both of these teams were victim to their bye week being erased by Mother Nature as this game was supposed to take place in week 1. The Bucs just broke their losing streak last week at home catching the Jets in a letdown spot. Backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was able to get some satisfying revenge against his old team while filling in for Jameis Winston. He didn't play too well however as it was more of the Tampa defense that stepped up to get the job done. I expect the same thing here but for the Dolphins this time around. I think their defense is loaded with talent and will get after Fitzpatrick today in what is a possible let down spot for Tampa now after a big relieving win last week and knowing their season isn't going any where. Dolphins QB Jay Cutler has been back now from the rib injury for two games and weapons are plentiful in the WR core with DeVante Parker now also back for two games from an injury. Alongside Jarvis Landry, I like Cutler to successfully sling the pigskin around the Bucs secondary to put up some points here as I expect the Dolphins to finally put together a nice game back at home with their backs against the wall here. Look for Fitz to mess this one up for Tampa. DOLPHINS+2

***ARIZONA CARDINALS @ HOUSTON TEXANS***

Ugly matchup here as two teams in the midst of disappointing seasons face off when the Arizona Cardinals go on the road to take on the Texans in Houston. Both of these teams had hopes of contending and both have had their starting QBs injured for the season which unfortunately dramatically changes things for them. I am not a fan of either backup, in fact I think they are both awful. Texans backup Tom Savage will once again get the start and frankly, that's all I need to hear as the offense becomes completely anemic with this guy under center. Especially up against a Arizona defense that still has their dangerous playmakers like CB Patrick Peterson, Safety Tyrann Mathieu, and LB Chandler Jones on the field, I don't think things will be changing much for Savage today. The Cardinals on the other hand have now chosen to move on from their backup QB Drew Stanton and go with the once highly drafted Blaine Gabbert today. Gabbert turned out to be a bust when he was drafted by the Jaguars years ago, but I really liked what I saw from the kid when he took over for Colin Kaepernick last year in SF. He looked to be much more confident and really threw a nice ball in my opinion. That being said I honestly feel much better going to war with this team as Gabbert as the QB than I would with Stanton or Savage for that matter. With the weapons the Cardinals till have at WR, I think Gabbert might actually be able to gel nicely with this group and get the offense grooving again. Veteran RB Adrian Peterson is still on a war path to be the once dominant RB he was once upon at time and Head Coach Bruce Arians will certainly still focus on force feeding him the ball. Off the extended rest from playing on Thursday night last week in a close loss at home against the Seahawks, I think they pull out a nice road win today. I believe Gabbert will be able to throw downfield after Peterson opens things up with the running game where Stanton proved once again last week that he is just too inaccurate to do so. The Texans defense is severely banged up and at this point I think they've lot their motivation because the writing was pretty much on the wall once DeShaun Watson went down and Stanton took over. They know their season is over. Gimme the Birds with an upset here. CARDINALS+2.5

***BALTIMORE RAVENS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS***

The Ravens are coming off of their bye week and heading into Lambeau to take on the Green Bay Packers and their young backup QB Brett Hundley. The Pack bounced back from a Monday Night disaster at home against the Lions with an impressive road win in Chicago last weekend against the Bears. In my opinion, that win was a bit flukey as a TD was called back for Chicago due to a challenge on the spot, that backfired to in a questionable fumble into the endzone. This call resulted in a touchback for GB and changed the entire dynamic of the game. Hundley played his best game though, and was clutch down the stretch against a solid defense. The kid looked more comfortable and in a bit more in rhythm. However, today he goes up against another solid defense in Baltimore that has a secondary that has a couple ball hawks who can really make things difficult. The Packers have taken injury hits in other areas offensively on the line and to the RB stable, and up against a fresh and rested Baltimore defense, Hundley may be headed to a gunfight without a pistol here. Ravens QB Joe Flacco and the passing game has been so inconsistent this season but I'm a fan of Head Coach John Harbaugh and after a bye week, up against a Packers defense that can be beat through the air, I think big Joe has himself a day today. The Ravens return RB Danny Woodhead who will help Flacco tremendously in the passing game with short dump offs as a security blanket when under fire. The Ravens have a real chance to make a run at a Wild Card spot with a pretty favorable schedule for the most part remaining and as long as they can put it all together and coming off of a loss and some rest, I think they will finally do so today in a close hard fought game against a lesser team on paper. RAVENS-2.5

***NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS***

Ah, all the old "tuck rule" game feels inevitably resurface when these two teams matchup. The Super Bowl Champ New England Patriots will travel to Mexico City with their division leading 7-2 record to take on the struggling 4-5 Oakland Raiders. As we saw last season, Mexico City is like a second home for Raider Nation which is pretty cool considering this should be a home game for the Raiders any way. With such a tall task at hand, the Raiders hope to keep their season alive with a HUGE upset win over the mighty Pats who looked nothing short of dominant last weekend in Denver on SNF in all aspects of the game. Their Special Teams set them up to blowout the lowly Broncos with ease as they quickly broke any will the Ponies started the game with. The Raiders are coming off of their bye week which couldn't of come in a more perfect spot as the more time you get to prep for the Pats the better. Apparently the Pats stayed in CO after last week's game as Head Coach Bill Belichick utilizes his genius in an attempt for his team to get appropriately acclimated to the high altitude that they will be playing in today. The other theory is to wait until the last possible day or so before making the trip above as some say that is the better route to take. It is also the same approach that the Raiders went with last season when they played and won a game in Mexico against the Houston Texans. I guess Head Coach Jack Del Rio is comfortable with how his team handled that last season and has chosen to roll with it again. I expect a full on shootout here between two great QBs in Brady and Carr. Both defenses have a ton of talent but can be beaten through the air. That being said and once again keeping things simple, I think Carr has more than enough options to go toe to toe with Brady and keep up with the inevitable points the Pats will put up agains the weak Raider secondary. Oakland will most likely try to utilize the ground game with RB Marshawn Lynch in an effort to keep Brady and the Patriot offense sidelined. I believe they will do so effectively as they feed off the energy of their home away from home. I also like the pass rush to get after Tommy boy today, and I wouldn't be surprised to see some tuck rule type deja vu take place with a sack-fumble hit by LB Khalil Mack for a key turnover that could prove to be the difference maker, heheh. I love that glitch in the Matrix type of history repeating itself nostalgia! In a nutshell, obviously this will be the game to watch in the late slate today and I expect it to be a good one, which means it will be close either way. Take the points. RAIDERS+7