***SWAMPY SUNDAY - WEEK 12 MUCK***

***CAROLINA PANTHERS @ NEW YORK JETS***

First up in the Muck today we have two teams both refreshed off their bye week as the 7-3 Carolina Panthers head into MetLife Stadium to take on the 4-6 New York Jets. The Panthers have now ripped off three straight wins as they stay hot on the heels of the NFC South first place New Orleans Saints, who they will face off with next in a week 3 rematch. That being said, I think the Panthers are in a bit of a letdown spot here. Having the bye week disrupt their momentum, and with a HUGE division game on deck, I think they come in a bit lethargic for this one. Meanwhile I like the Jets to be highly motivated and get UP to defend their home field against an upper echelon NFL team. NY plays their best ball at home, I think they get after Panthers QB Cam Newton who has been playing well in their recent three game winning streak, a little too well, heheh. This team goes as Newton does, his attitude is infectious to the entire team's psyche. I've seen it happen over and over; when he is playing well, it's all smiles and dancing as the Panthers play great, and vice versa as when he's playing poorly and pouting. His "take my ball and go home" attitude domino effects into the rest of the offense as they begin to also feel sorry for themselves and tuck their tail between their legs. That being said, I feel as though it will be tough game for Cam to focus and be at his best today while playing in the cold weather in windy MetLife against a lesser foe, look what happened to the Chiefs in a similar spot against the lowly Giants last week. The Panthers get back Tight End Greg Olsen as well and I just have a feeling that they are taking this game for granted and overlooking the Jets, probably looking at it like a live scrimmage for Olsen to get right in. I like the Jets secondary to be locked in here, with Rookies Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye all over Olsen to welcome him back. I think this will be the first time Newton misses his old reliable big WR in Kelvin Benjamin since the trade to Buffalo. I like these guys to get after Newton today and eventually smell blood once they find themselves in what should be a close and low scoring affair. On the other side of things, the Jets offense should be refreshed here, and rely on the usual ground and pound but I do think QB Josh McCown will be able to have some success through the air with his speedster WR Robby Anderson. Going to end these write-ups much shorter today so I will just leave it at a simple synopsis to end: lookahead snoozer spot for the Cats and the Jets capitalize on it. JETS+6

***BUFFALO BILLS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS***

My my my, what a weird situation we had with these Buffalo Bills last week eh? After such a promising start to the season and talks of a finally snapping their playoff-less streak, the Bills have hit rock bottom after three straight losses, all in blowout fashion. Ever since that debacle in MetLife against the Jets on TNF a few weeks back, it has been all downhill for the Buffalo Bills, so much that Rookie Head Coach Sean McDermott made the decision last week to bench QB Tyrod Taylor and start Rookie QB Nate Peterson. It was one of those out of the blue decisions where he was either going to look like a genius or like a fool, and clearly it was the latter as Peterson threw FIVE interceptions in the first half. Obviously, it is easy to look back now and criticize the Head Coach and ask what the hell was he thinking, but I got to admit it wasn't the best spot to pick for a Rookie QB to be thrown into the fire as the Chargers have some of the best pass-rushers in the game who are capable of making a veteran QB look bad, and it showed. Needless to say, Taylor was given back the keys in the second half of that game and despite still losing the game by a landslide, in my opinion; the Bills seemed to have sparked a bit when Taylor came back in the game. That means that he has the team behind him, which is extremely important for effort down the stretch. Today in KC, Tyrod is back starting behind center, and although it seems crazy- the Bills are still technically alive in the playoff race. The Chiefs are another team trending downward as of late, and the inevitable clamoring to bench Alex Smith in favor of their new shiny Rookie QB Pat Mahomes has begun. I hate to say it as I like Smitty, but I am aware that he can hold an offense back at times, and that it is most likely only a matter of time before they turn to the kid with the big arm that they moved up in the draft to get. I would say that another stinker by the Chiefs today at home, especially if they are upset, would certainly do the trick for Smith to get benched. I said it back on the TNF game against the Raiders and now it seems like I'm reading it everywhere or maybe I'm just crazy, but the NFL has officially adjusted to the KC Offense. I knew it would take a few weeks, but once there is enough tape out there of that gimmicky, college like offense full of trickery and misdirection, defensive coordinators will begin to lay out the blue print and slow it down. The Bills are desperate and although they looked like absolute trash lately, this defense can still ball and get turnovers. I think they show up today, motivated in a big game on the road to stop the bleeding. I have a feeling Smith will continue to struggle and that will be all she wrote. With Taylor playing with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove here, I like him and RB Shady McCoy to run wild against a poor KC defense and pull off an upset here. BILLS+9

***TENNESSEE TITANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS***

Not much to talk about here, despite a valiant effort in every game, the Colts are finished for the year. Coming out of their bye week fat and happy off the holiday, they now host a hungry and desperate rival in the 6-4 Tennessee Titans. The Titans are coming off a loss in Pittsburgh in what seems like forever ago on TNF, two Thursday's ago. For a potential playoff team, the Titans were embarrassed by the Steelers, losing 40-17 as Big Ben and the Pittsburgh offense did whatever they pleased at home on National TV that night. After a long break of their own, and big time aspirations, I expect the Titans to come ready to right the ship today on the road against a lowly divisional opponent whom they already beat up 36-22 earlier this season. The Colts have beat up on the Titans unmercifully for years behind the arms of Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. They won the last 11 showdowns before the Titans were able to get passed them in that game mentioned above on MNF back in week 6. With a chance to sweep the Colts for the first time in probably close to a decade, I don't think Tennessee will look passed the opportunity to take advantage of these battered ponies. Indy QB Jacoby Brissett has really impressed me this season and has competed hard, putting his team in position to win a handful of these games, the earlier matchup between these two was one of them. However, I just feel as though it is going to be hard for the Colts to match the motivation Tenn will have today, and it may take another butt whooping for them to wake back up again. Indy's entire secondary is banged up. Everything that they were doing well it seems on that side of the ball has been taken away from them via injury. Before their bye week, they somehow hung with Pitt at home in what would've been a HUGE upset. However, we all know now what I stated in my writeup for the Tenn/Pitt TNF game where I backed the Steelers, that Pitt was indeed sleepwalking through that game while looking ahead to the handful of big games they had on deck. They did the minimum to get the win in indy, whereas they unleashed hell on Tenn back at home the following week. So, that being said, in the law of averages- Pitt nearly lost to Indy, Pitt crushed indy, indy > Tenn right? Nah, this is the NFL version of law of averages- Tenn smacks up Indy here. TITANS-3

***NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS***

Great game here, and possibly the best one of the day barring any surprises as two probable NFC playoff teams face off in LA. The 8-2 Saints take their eight game winning streak on the road in an attempt to make it nine as they take on one of this season's biggest surprises in the 7-3 Rams. Rookie Head Coach of the Rams Sean McVay has really done wonders to turn this team around in a hurry. Before losing a tough game in Minnesota last week, the Rams had been rolling along leading the NFC West, fending off the pesky Seahawks. The Saints have some rivals hot on their tail as well in the Panthers and Falcons, both who they will still face a couple of times as the season winds down. This is a BIG game for both teams and I got to side with the veteran QB Drew Brees and the red hot Saints. New Orleans has been flourishing behind the running game and its RB duo of Mark ingram and Rookie Alvin Kamara. I like them to keep this attack the main focus today but I feel as though this game will come down to a shootout between Brees and the young Rams QB Jared Goff, and that's where I have to give my edge to the vet, and get behind the marching Saints. Most are talking about how the Saints will be without their star rookie CB Marshon Lattimore and fellow CB Ken Crawley. Defensive Coordinator Dennis Allen and specifically secondary coach Aaron Glenn have successfully turned this unit around in such a short time, it is incredible really. I think they have enough depth to fill in at CB by committee at least for 1 game. It also helps that the Rams will be without one of their own playmakers in WR Robert Woods this afternoon. After the Saints improbable comeback against the Redskins last week, down 15 points with under 3 minutes left to play - they were able to force overtime and get the W. That was Drew Brees doing what he does, throwing two clutch TD passes to put his team in position to do the impossible. After a win like that, these guys got to be feeling on top of the world and I like them to keep it rolling, at least for one more week. I like the gameplan that the Saints have been attacking with, they run, run, and run, and then when he has to, 'ol Breezy rises up and makes big time plays through the air, or as we saw in Buffalo, even his feet! The Rams could be without a starting CB of their own today in Nickell Robey-Coleman and as we saw once down last week in Minny- WR Adam Thelien took a hitch to the house to seal the game. Best believe Drew will be targeting any weaknesses like that today. Gimme Nawleans to get their 9th here as I think the Rams will stumble a bit down the stretch and be forced to dig down deep to stay at the top spot in their division. SAINTS+2.5

***DENVER BRONCOS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS***

The Broncos have now lost 6 straight, some in embarrassing fashion. Their last win? It was back in week 4, when they hosted and beat these very Raiders by a score of 16-10. After some major issues at QB with Siemian and now Osweiler, they will spin the carousel one more time as they have elected to give the keys to Sophomore QB Paxton Lynch. Lynch was hurt earlier this year so he wasn't an option early on. He got some playing time last season and did some good, and a ton of bad, but some good too! He is a big framed QB that can move, and should honestly give the Broncos their best chance to compete given the other options, the kid might even provide a little spark today against their division rival. After last week, the Raiders are in complete disarray. The Super Bowl Champ New England Pats beatdown the Raiders in New Mexico in what seemed like a 'know your place/you are not on our level/thanks for the tuck rule &dynasty' type of statement game. Needless to say, the Raider morale has to be at an all time low. I've heard whispers of some underlying issues going on with that team with possible political views and beliefs causing a rift but regardless of any of that- this team has no secondary. They are pitiful on the backend of that defense and don't have a single interception this season. There is a reason that Denver picked this game for Lynch to be thrown into the starting role and it is because this is a potential confidence-building opportunity for him as he should find some success through the air throwing downfield to WRs Emmanuel Sanders and Demmaryius Thomas, two WRs that YAC it up better than most. That being said, the Broncos will most likely try to dominate with the running game to help open things up for Lynch. If they can successfully do so, all Lynch has to do is manage the game and dink and dunk to these guys who will do the rest for him to move the Broncos into scoring position. On the other side of things i really like this Broncos defense to answer the bell after John Elway called this team 'soft' and say enough is enough. I believe they will get up for the challenge of snapping their losing streak while simultaneously hindering any playoff hopes the Raiders still might have. The Broncos fired their offensive coordinator and the Raiders fired their defensive coordinator, it may get a bit crazy today in the Black Hole and I think the Broncos upset here. BRONCOS+3.5

***CLEVELAND BROWNS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS***

Lastly, because I simply cannot help myself- I am throwing in a bonus hopeful pick. I guess you can say I now have a case of FOMO (fear of missing out) when it comes to backing this god awful Cleveland team. After watching them come so close the last three weeks and choosing last week to hop on in what was a brutal bad beat as QB Deshone Kizer fumbles the ball and Jacksonville scoops and scores to cover in the final minute of the game. I now feel like I have to go back to the well here in yet another spot where the stars are possibly aligning. Today they head into Cincy, where there is a clear history full of bad blood and strong voodoo that makes this spot impossible to pass up for me. Three seasons ago the Browns smacked the Jungle Cats in Cincy. It was 2014, and Bryan Hoyer was the QB when the infamous Deion Sanders quote of "Pay the Man" took place on a TNF matchup. Now today, the Browns play their 50th game since that 24-3 road win over the Bengals and since then they have only won 5 times. Good lord that is awful. The Browns even managed to botch a trade before the deadline acquiring Bengals backup QB AJ McCarron. Since that fell through, Head Coach Hue Jackson made it clear to his Rookie QB Kizer that he will be the starter for the remainder of the season. Kizer will be making his 10th start today and although he completely fell on his face in clutch time last week, it was against a top defense in the Jaguars, who has dismantled far better veteran QBs already this season. The Browns were RIGHT there, with a chance to WIN the game, AGAIN. I got to take them and the points here to at least get the cover against a Bengals team that doesn't scare anybody. Cincy needs to win out or at least close to in order to make a run at the Wild Card. With the Steelers on Prime Time on deck next week, I think they may be a bit flat here against the winless Brownies. Last time around in week 4, the Bungs made quick work of the Browns in a get-right game for them, beating 'em 31-7. No surprise here, but the Browns shot themselves in the foot that game, numerous times. Rookie DE Myles Garrett also didn't play and he will be doing so today as the Browns will need him to have himself a HUGE game with some other key pieces on defense out. The important thing here is CB Jason McCourty will be suiting up as he was able to effectively defend beast WR AJ Green of the Bengals in the first affair. The Browns welcomed back WR Corey Coleman from an injury last week and I expect Kizer to look his way more often through a Bengals secondary that is also banged up. Basically, I like the Brownies to once again show up with an all-out effort here in an effort to get off the schneid, and not saying they do- but this spot is as good as any to get it done and I wouldn't be surprised. I expect another close game where I'm rolling my eyes and cursing myself for picking them the entire time, only this time they will finish and get the cover. BROWNS+8