***SUPER BOWL LII IN THE SWAMP - PHI VS NE***
***PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS***
Super Bowl LII is finally here my friends, the grand daddy of them all! It is no surprise that the AFC representative this year is none other than the defending Champion New England Patriots. In the NFC's corner, we have the challenger, the Philadelphia Eagles. At first glance, the Eagles appropriately seem like the Rocky Balboa in this situation, stepping up to an Ivan Drago like Patriots team while wearing dog masks and playing the disrespected underdog theme the entire playoffs thus far. Due to losing their MVP caliber young stud of a QB Carson Wentz towards the end of the season, most (including myself, shamefully) counted these Birds out as a one and done playoff team. However clearly we now know that this Eagles team is no pushover. In the year of the backup QB as I like to call it with how many across the league were relied on and played significant snaps this season, it is somewhat fitting to have one involved here in the biggest game of the year. Backup QB Nick Foles, who's backstory I won't get into since I feel like I've done it twice already in these write-ups, stepped up in an extremely impressive fashion. Believe it or not, the two Eagles games are the only playoff picks your boy has gotten wrong thus far, along with push on the Viking's Minneapolis Miracle. Honestly it is not because I didn't think they could do it or were capable as I have the upmost respect for their defensive front and am well aware how important that unit is in these NFL playoffs. My reasons for picking against them twice was more because I believed if there was a 'team of destiny' so to speak this season it was the two teams they faced in Atlanta on their redemption tour and Minnesota trying to become the first team to host a Super Bowl. I believe those factors gave those teams the edge that could get them by a tough Philadelphia environment but I was wrong as the Birds handled business at home and made light work of a strong Vikings team in the NFC Championship. That is the game where Foles really had me a bit stunned. He straight up put on an amazing performance and played fearlessly as the entire team and stadium fed off of it. Once the Birds took an interception back for a touchdown and that place got rocking it was over. My hats off to the Eagles and their coaching staff for being able to still reach the promised land despite all the injuries and adversity. Tonight's task is a different type of monster however as trying to take out the "GOAT" Tom Brady and Head Coach Bill Belichick on the world's biggest stage and for the ultimate prize is a feat very few have been able to accomplish.
Brady and Belichick are arguably the best QB and Head Coach duo to ever exist and I think at this point it may be more of a fact. Tonight they head into their eighth Super Bowl together, having won 5 of the previous 7 times they've made it there. Records upon records upon records between the two that I won't even begin to list out here for both your sake and mine as we get the point. Let's just get right to the point now and why; as much respect as I have for this Eagles team, especially after making me eat crow in back to back games now- I have to once again side with the Patriots in this one. To me it's quite simple and the bottom line is that I perceive this game as the Michael Jordan moment of Tom Brady's illustrious career, as a sixth ring would cement him as the "GOAT" or greatest of all time even more than it currently is after last season's miraculous comeback in the Super Bowl against the Falcons. If you have ever followed me or read any of my insight before, you know that I have zero problem going against the grain, and that I actually prefer to. However sometimes you need to know when to go with the flow and ride the wave my friends. That being said, there is maybe one to three times a season where the rare situation presents itself for me to actually back the mighty Patriots, and every time it feels evil like I'm joining the dark side. Heheh, as a perpetual underdog hunter, I'd be lying if I didn't admit that it feels good backing and rooting for a team of such quality and prestige. From having no bonehead mistakes to worry about or stress over with such a well coached and disciplined team to getting all of the benefit of the doubt calls from the Zebras are just some of the many clear benefits but you get the point. In my eyes, this is one of those times and while I believe that the Eagles are very capable of pulling an upset here, I just think that their run ends just short of the finish line and unfortunately for their fans the long wait for a Championship continues. However I do think that Carson Wentz is truly the next top QB in the NFL and that he will be the one that finally gets them over the hump to win a Super Bowl, and maybe more than once. As long as he gets healthy and back to where he was, this team is going to be in the mix for a while moving forward.
I have many different reasons for backing this Patriots today. First off, obviously having two weeks to prepare for the league's greatest Head Coach and his two protege's in OC McDaniels and DC Patricia in what will be their Swan Song coaching together before they both depart to become Head Coaches themselves elsewhere, is a big deal to say the least. Secondly, the experience factor is a major key. The majority of the Patriots have done this whole Super Bowl song and dance over and over again and know exactly how to properly prepare and what to expect during the two week period leading up to the game and during the game itself. Whereas aside from a handful of Eagles, some who were on the Pats last season in RB LeGarette Blount and DE Chris Long, this has all been a first time experience. Now how much weight should be put into the experience vs inexperience factor? I think that depends as both teams are of course going to have those biggest game of your life jitters to begin the game. I mean if I hear the statistic of how the Patriots haven't ever scored in the first quarter of a Super Bowl one more time......as a matter of fact I won't be surprised if they do so tonight just because I feel like I've heard that at least once a day for two weeks now. The wonders of the sports media! Now normally I would acknowledge the experience differential for what it is and wouldn't put too much stock into it. However this case in particular is a bit abnormal because of just how many times this New England team has there and done that. In this specific situation, I do think it matters greatly and I think there is a chance that it negatively effects a backup QB like Nick Foles despite his calm and cool demeanor and how well he played at home thus far. This game isn't in Philly my friends, where the Eagles thrived off the energy of the home crowd and the unfamiliarity of an opponent who plays in a Dome. This game is in Minnesota, where after the NFC Championship, I got to believe that Philly and it's fans are simply not welcome. The wound and disrespect is far too fresh in the minds of Minnesota natives. The Vikings not only got their teeth kicked in that game, but their fan-base was treated extremely poorly by Eagles Nation during their visit to the City of Brotherly love, ironically. An Eagles win on the Viking's home field would certainly be salt thrown on a deep, deep wound as another organization that has had its fair share of tough losses throughout it's history. I got to believe Vikings fans and natives are doing everything they can to lay that bad voodoo down for Philly in hopes obtaining some closure with an Eagles loss and preferably, a beat-down at the hands of the Patriots on their field later tonight.
When purely comparing the talent and coaches of these two teams on paper, despite Brady and Belichick - I actually think the Eagles have the better overall team. However, again in this specific matchup of right here and now- I believe the personnel and schemes will tilt the scale towards New England. The Eagles have found great success and comfort for Foles in running these "RPO" or run-pass option type plays. I have to give it to them, it was a genius decision whipping these plays out and catching the Falcon defense off-guard the way they did in the Divisional round. I expected Minnesota to know these type of plays were coming, and given how good of a defense they have, be ready for them....and they still got burned. All that tells me is just how difficult these type of plays are to stop if they are run correctly like Foles seems to be doing at the moment. Foles sticks the football in the gut of his RB, and hits the opponent's LB in the flat-zone with a Clint Eastwood "make my day" type of dare. Foles then takes advantage of the opposite of that LB's choice during those crucial split-seconds. If the LB bites on the run and crashes down inside, Foles throws it behind him to a slanting WR for a first down and possibly more. If the LB chooses to hang back in the zone to try and defend the potential pass, Foles then lets the RB run with it to pick up chunks of yardage. This puts a ton of pressure on a single defender to determine what the offense does and like the domino effect, if the LB does one thing and his teammate another, that my friends is where mistakes happen. While I do think this is one of the weaker Patriot defenses that I've seen talent-wise, intelligence is something that these Patriot teams rarely lack. Again with two weeks to prepare for this and given just how smart the Patriots coaching staff is, I expect them to have a solid plan to be ready for this Eagles offense and I believe they will be. We all know that football is very much like a game of Chess when looking at it in Coaching terms. That being said whatever the Eagles do get going offensively, I have trust in the Pats to adjust accordingly throughout the game. If there is one thing I do like about the New England defense, it is their secondary. I love what I saw from the CB Stephon Gilmore and how he stepped up to make the play that sealed the victory against the Jaguars by athletically leaping and deflecting a 4th down pass to essentially end the game. When they first acquired Gilmore during the offseason I remember saying wow, that is almost unfair. To my surprise, he was kind of a ghost all season and I had almost forgot he was on the defense until he made that play. I also forgot how the Patriot CBs tend to play differently then your typical CB and that there was probably a major adjustment period for Gilmore coming from Buffalo. Therefore I saw that as his official "Patriot moment" and I have faith in him, Butler, and McCourty in the defensive backfield to buckle down and play the RPO's tight. Historically Eagles WR Torrey Smith has burned the Pats while on the Ravens years ago and while I believe his best days are behind him, I wouldn't be surprised to see him sneakily make a big play or two today. The speed and resurgence of Nelson Agholor this season does scare me as a deep threat but I believe the Pats DBs will be able to stick on the slower, big bodied WR Alshon Jeffery and utilize blanket coverage on TE Zach Ertz. The Eagles will surely attempt to establish a running game in an effort to keep Brady and his offense off of the field and out of rhythm as much as possible by putting together long, clock-eating drives, similar to what the Jaguars were able to do in the AFC Championship. Behind one of the most underrated offensive lines in my opinion, I do expect LeGarette Blount and Jay Ajayi to get theirs throughout this game. They'll pick up their chunks of yardage and keep drives alive as they boost confidence and morale for their team. The Patriots will assume their usual bend but don't break mentality defensively that they are typically good at where they're ok with giving up the field position as long as the only points they let up result in a FG.
Speaking of FGs, I have to quickly note just how ironic the two Kickers are in this game. Both are exceptional. We've now known how consistently solid Patriots Kicker Steven Gostkowkski is and what he can do, but this season we have been surprised by the emergence of the Rookie Philadelphia Kicker, Jake Elliot. Gostkowski and Elliot both are alumni of the University of Memphis. Gostkowski set a bunch of records at Memphis during his time there and then was a mentor to Elliot afterward while he attended the University. As a Kicker there, Elliot actually wound up breaking some of those records and now here they are facing off in the Super Bowl! Just a cool little tidbit there as you know I love all that weird coincidental type stuff. It would actually be fitting and I wouldn't be surprised to see both Kickers become a major factor and storyline in today's game by trading FGs back and forth until the levee breaks, because it will. This brings me to my next and final analyzation, the Patriot offense vs the stout Eagles defense. As I mentioned previously, the Eagles have one of and maybe the best defensive front seven in the NFL. DT Fletcher Cox leads the charge for the Birds pass rush and we all know the blueprint for stopping or slowing down Tommy Boy in the pocket and that is pressure up the middle and smothering his immobile 40 year old self. I believe the Pats will do their usual mixup of RBs and utilize them heavily through screen passes and dump-offs over the heads of the pass rush in an attempt to slow them down and make them think twice. Eagles Defensive Coordinator Jim Schwartz has done a tremendous job in Philly with that defense and I expect him to have a very strategic and complete game-plan for defending the great Tom Brady, TE Rob Gronkowski and the WR minions. That's the thing here for me that I see being a problem for this Eagles defense. While I really like how the DBs on Philly have come along this season, in my opinion they do much better against bigger WRs like Julio Jones since they themselves are much bigger and more physical than your average NFL CBs. Jalen Mills has done a great job thus far and the addition of Darby has been a perfect match but I feel as though these quick cutting, small WRs that New England has in Amendola, Cooks, Hogan and Dorsett may cause major problems for the Birds in coverage. Gronkowski missed last year's Super Bowl due to a season ending injury. Obviously he will be a key factor in the game tonight and one would think Brady will wisely try to utilize him as much as possible. Luckily for the Birds, in my opinion they have one of the best cover Safeties in the league in Malcolm Jenkins. Jenkins came into this league as a CB for the New Orleans Saints before they let him walk and sign with Philly where he became a Safety and reminds me a lot of former Eagles Safety Brian Dawkins in terms of both vocal and physical leadership for that unit. Jenkins is a ballhawk and I expect him to be all over Gronk but also in my opinion- Gronk just may be the best TE to ever do it and somebody wise once said,"big time players make big time plays in big time games."
With all of these weapons at his disposal, maybe not at first but I eventually feel as though Brady will take over the game and emerge victorious one more time when it is all said and done here as the Eagles join the Falcons and Seahawks as the sacrificial birds stuffed on the wall of the "Brady and Belichick Era" future tour. After yet another comeback during the AFC Championship in what was in my opinion the best defense in the NFL, how can you possibly count these guys out again? Last year I was fortunate enough to be on the same side as them and truthfully I never lost faith until the Falcons scored to start the second half. Then and only then did I say "ah well, I guess it is over," and even then, they found a way to pull it off. I do expect a good game here but also wouldn't be surprised if the Pats finally dominate somebody in a Super Bowl either, it is about that time. The exclamation point so to speak. Would anybody really blame the Eagles in hindsight if that was the case? Nick Foles? He and the rest of the Birds can hang their hats on getting there with the poor deck of cards they were dealt. You may be sick of hearing this but it is true: we are witnessing greatness here with this team and what they are doing. Among the tidbits of on offense and defense and kickers I mentioned, the details are a major key in a game of this magnitude, and nobody is better dotting their i's and crossing their t's than Bill. Somebody will be making a key mistake tonight that could weigh heavily on the outcome, and I am willing to go ahead and say it will be the team with a backup QB. Similar to how Vikings QB Case Keenum threw that key interception against the Eagles in the NFC Championship, sometimes that's all it takes. Frankly, I can't see Foles and the Eagles playing much better than they did against the Vikings and I don't see them duplicating that performance tonight against Brady. I for one won't be standing in the way of the Pats again in the Super Bowl unless it's none other than Eli Manning and that Blue Krpytonite is on the other side, ha! Yes your boy did have Big Blue for both of those games and it was glorious. When it comes down to it, whether it is by aid of the Zebras, the genius of Belichick, or the greatness of Brady, there is simply too much to overcome here and I expect the Pats to get that W. Side note; In a year where Nick Saban, an old friend and colleague of Belichick got his sixth Championship ring on the NCAA level, I think Bill does the same tonight. In fact, Saban has been known to know a thing or two about defending these pesky RPO's, hmmmmmm I'm just saying my friends. I rather back the team who I love to win and lay the points in what I could potentially see as a 7-10 point victory, rather than hoping the Eagles stay within the number. If they do or pull the upset, well then touche' and I'll live with my decision. I do love me some Pats today though, feel the force I'll shut-up now. It's been a wild ride this season and I hope you enjoyed the weekly picks and write-ups in the Swamp. Your boy is looking to make it four called SBs in a row with this one, let's go!
Until next year my friends, enjoy the grand finale! Signing off with how this pick makes me feel: "let the hate flow through you, goooooood. The hate is swelling in you now, use it!" PATRIOTS-4.5
